Rick Scott rising in polls

Image via WikipediaFL Governor campaign update, 10/4/10
Naples businessman and first-time candidate for Florida Governor Rick Scott has been rising in the polls since defeating Bill McCollum in the GOP primary this past August. His ads tying CFO Sink to President Obama have been particularly effective in light of the President's rising unpopularity among independents. Scott has a higher favorability rating than Sink, 41 to 39 according to a Quinnipiac University poll of likely voters taken the week of September 23rd. 48 percent of voters polled preferred Rick Scott on rebuilding Florida's economy. CNN/Time/Opinion Research also released a poll of likely voters showing the Scott campaign barely ahead of Alex Sink 47-45. The GOP has united around Scott (not including McCollum, however) in a major way. The Republican base and Tea Party have really taken to Rick's message and have embraced his pledge to not take a salary if elected. His numbers are rising despite the mixed response to his TV campaign, noted by the Quinnipiac University poll. Eighty-nine percent of those surveyed said they had seen Scott's TV ads, and 54 percent of that group called the ads "annoying". By October all political ads are annoying, but after such a divisive GOP primary, those numbers really aren't that bad in my personal opinion.
The Scott campaign has good reason to be optimistic, even if Nate Silver isn't. "The polls here are in conflict, with Mason-Dixon showing a 7-point lead for Alex Sink, the Democrat, while Rasmussen Reports has a 6-point lead for Rick Scott, the Republican. On balance, the new polls show that Mr. Scott’s chances have improved slightly: while he is still the underdog in the race, his chances of winning have improved to 42 percent, from 37 percent, according to the (538) model." Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight
UPDATE: Rick Scott now has a 60% chance to win. Nate revised his findings...

I met Rick and his wife last Monday here in Panama City and heard him speak at the opening of the local campaign office in downtown Panama City. His message resonated with the crowd in attendance, who all had a great opportunity to personally talk to Rick. Bay County voted for Rick by the highest margin in the state of Florida during the primary. His signs are everywhere here and I expect him to win the race and have a solid finish here locally in the Panhandle.
For my local Panama City readers, I read that FL Democratic gubernatorial candidate Alex Sink considered choosing our own Panama City mayor, Scott Clemons, as her running mate. Sounds like Clemons had a real future in the Democratic Party until he endorsed opportunistic independent candidate and current Governor Charlie Crist in his race for the US Senate against his own party's nominee, Kendrick Meek. This illustrates the internal conflict present in a floundering Democratic Party, struggling to swim upstream against a rising tide of voter anger resulting from the failures of the last 18 months and the unpopularity of the national Democratic leadership.

Humble Pie

Image via WikipediaToday is September 13th, nearly 3 weeks after the GOP primary former candidate for Governor and current Florida Attorney General Bill McCollum has not endorsed Rick Scott, as is the normal custom in politics. I read this today: "Reached after an event at the Capitol today, Attorney General Bill McCollum was still mum on whether he will endorse anyone in the governor's race: "There's no update." McCollum, who lost an expensive (and bitter) primary battle with Rick Scott, also would not comment on who he plans to vote for. He said he is focused on getting Pam Bondi elected as the next attorney general and on tomorrow's initial arguments in the lawsuit challenging the new federal health care law."This was posted by Lee Logan on tampabay.com at 11:56:55 AM today September 13, 2010
I have met Bill McCollum more than once and asked him questions about his policies directly. I sat in on a campaign meeting of theirs and I really think they underestimated Rick Scott early on. Scott captured that anti-incumbent sentiment and in my opinion there wasn't much Bill could do about that, especially with a lot less money on hand than Rick. He was a member of the US Congress, a legislative body with an approval rating of roughly 20% these days. The ads tying the General to Charlie Crist's friend, former disgraced RPOF Chairman Jim Greer could have been what pushed Rick over the top. I can see why Bill is still bitter. It was a negative race, no question.
Sometimes in life when events seen as "bad" happen, such as losing an election, making difficult financial choices or ending a relationship, you have to accept things as they are, not how you wish them to be, and move on. Rick Scott won. It is what it is. Bill just needs to do the right thing and support the party nominee, then retire from politics with grace. I'll give the General this, at least he didn't switch parties and run as an Independent candidate for Governor.